FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Elsa
LOCATED
110 MI ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
WINDS
65 MPH
PRESSURE
1004 MB
MOVING
NW AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021
ELSA JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. Hurricane conditions are also possible along the south coast this morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for much of the west coast of Florida.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. Hurricane conditions are also possible along the south coast this morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for much of the west coast of Florida.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...21.0N 79.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch on the west coast of Florida has been extended northward from Anclote River to Aucilla River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban province of Camaguey A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
- West coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban province of Artemisa
- The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
- Florida Bay
- West coast of Florida from Englewood northward to the Aucilla River A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after the first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...21.0N 79.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch on the west coast of Florida has been extended northward from Anclote River to Aucilla River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban province of Camaguey A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
- West coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban province of Artemisa
- The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
- Florida Bay
- West coast of Florida from Englewood northward to the Aucilla River A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after the first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning, and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning, and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 79.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 79.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Elsa appears to be holding steady in strength while moving just south of central Cuba. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection over the center and some banding features, especially on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass from around 0130Z indicated that Elsa was a compact system with tropical-storm-force winds mostly confined to a region within about 60 n mi east of the center. Peak winds in the pass were around 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and given the small size of the cyclone and somewhat course resolution of the ASCAT data, it seems very reasonable that Elsa has an initial intensity of around 55 kt. This intensity estimate is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa again shortly, and the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the storm's intensity and wind field.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 12 kt on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. A gradual turn to the north is expected over the next day or two as Elsa moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should take the core of Elsa across central or western Cuba later this morning, near the Lower Florida Keys tonight or early Tuesday, and then along or very near the west coast of Florida later on Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most of the models show Elsa moving inland over west-central or northern Florida, but given the expected parallel motion to the coast, much of the west coast of the state will likely see impacts from Elsa on Tuesday and into Wednesday. After Elsa clears Florida, it is expected to move faster north-northeastward across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday before moving over the western Atlantic. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models.

Given the overall favorable environmental conditions, Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches the coast of Cuba later this morning. Some weakening is expected due to the land interaction with Cuba, but most of the model guidance suggests that Elsa could restrengthen slightly before it moves inland over Florida. Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear. However, it should be noted that given the expected track, much of the west coast of Florida will be on the east side of Elsa, which is where the strongest winds, highest surge, and heaviest rains are expected to be. Gradual weakening is forecast while Elsa moves across portions of the southeast U.S., but some restrengthening is possible again when the storm moves over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one while Elsa is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Elsa appears to be holding steady in strength while moving just south of central Cuba. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection over the center and some banding features, especially on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass from around 0130Z indicated that Elsa was a compact system with tropical-storm-force winds mostly confined to a region within about 60 n mi east of the center. Peak winds in the pass were around 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and given the small size of the cyclone and somewhat course resolution of the ASCAT data, it seems very reasonable that Elsa has an initial intensity of around 55 kt. This intensity estimate is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa again shortly, and the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the storm's intensity and wind field.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 12 kt on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. A gradual turn to the north is expected over the next day or two as Elsa moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should take the core of Elsa across central or western Cuba later this morning, near the Lower Florida Keys tonight or early Tuesday, and then along or very near the west coast of Florida later on Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most of the models show Elsa moving inland over west-central or northern Florida, but given the expected parallel motion to the coast, much of the west coast of the state will likely see impacts from Elsa on Tuesday and into Wednesday. After Elsa clears Florida, it is expected to move faster north-northeastward across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday before moving over the western Atlantic. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models.

Given the overall favorable environmental conditions, Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches the coast of Cuba later this morning. Some weakening is expected due to the land interaction with Cuba, but most of the model guidance suggests that Elsa could restrengthen slightly before it moves inland over Florida. Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear. However, it should be noted that given the expected track, much of the west coast of Florida will be on the east side of Elsa, which is where the strongest winds, highest surge, and heaviest rains are expected to be. Gradual weakening is forecast while Elsa moves across portions of the southeast U.S., but some restrengthening is possible again when the storm moves over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one while Elsa is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance.

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