1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid- to late-week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
- West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week:

Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the northnorthwest on Tuesday, and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. A northnortheastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa should emerge off the coast western Cuba during the next hour or so, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts over water. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the Straits of Florida tonight and over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate Elsa once the storm moves back over water.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly north through northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Satellite and radar imagery along with surface synoptic observations indicate that the tropical cyclone moved inland over west-central Cuba around 1800 UTC, accompanied by very heavy rains. Assuming that some weakening has occurred due to the influence of land, the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Elsa this evening after the center moves into the Florida Straits and will provide a better assessment of the system's intensity.

The storm appears to be continuing on its northwestward track and the initial motion estimate is 315/12 kt. There are no changes to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Elsa should move between the western portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from the Atlantic and a broad low pressure area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the system is likely to accelerate northeastward and move from the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The NHC track forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is practically identical to the one from the previous advisory, and a little to the left of the previous one over the eastern United States and the Atlantic. This is in good agreement with the now tightly-clustered track model guidance.

Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the latest model consensus, IVCN. Around 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the forecast shows extratropical transition at that time.

Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 50 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models.

Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time.