FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Elsa
LOCATED
155 MI SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
WINDS
70 MPH
PRESSURE
998 MB
MOVING
N AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021
ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Georgia from the Mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas
- West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
- West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River
- Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Georgia from the Mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas
- West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
- West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River
- Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42023 recently measured a peak 1 minute sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) gusting to 78 mph (126 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42023 recently measured a peak 1 minute sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) gusting to 78 mph (126 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of the circulation continues to lack significant shower or thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a hurricane overnight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt. A continued northward track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of the model consensus tracks.

The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of the circulation continues to lack significant shower or thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a hurricane overnight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt. A continued northward track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of the model consensus tracks.

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