1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern New England states and New York by Friday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
- Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
- New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast for the next several hours, along the South Carolina coast this morning, along the North Carolina coast later today, and along the midAtlantic coast by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the midAtlantic and northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from late tonight through tonight are possible, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

From the MidAtlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches are possible today into Friday. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this morning from southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northnortheast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this morning, followed by a faster northeastward motion later today. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia this morning, over South Carolina and North Carolina later today, pass near the eastern midAtlantic states by tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some restrengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a posttropical cyclone late Friday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mostly southeast of the center near the coast. A few hours ago, wind gusts of 75 to 80 mph (120 to 130 km/h) were reported from Weatherflow stations near Tybee Island, Georgia, in a severe thunderstorm in an outer rain band.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to 40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at least 40 kt.

Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution.

The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical low by day 4.

There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.