Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory 35

1. As Elsa moves from North Carolina to Virginia today and this evening, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.

1. As Elsa moves from North Carolina to Virginia today and this evening, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Little River Inlet has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
- Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
- New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the North Carolina coast today, and along the mid Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited to considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid Atlantic to southern New England.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the North Carolina coast today, and along the mid Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited to considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid Atlantic to southern New England.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 78.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move over North Carolina this afternoon, pass near the eastern mid Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. A NOAA NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is still producing some very heavy rains.

Elsa's low-level center is a bit elongated from southwest to northeast, but surface synoptic data indicate that it has moved into northern North Carolina. The storm continues to gradually accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is 040/18 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next 1-2 days as the cyclone moves along with the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the previous one and similar to the multi-model consensus, TVCA.

The global models suggest that not much additional strengthening is likely. Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours so the official forecast shows an extratropical transition by late Friday. This is also supported by cyclone phase analyses of the model fields from Florida State University.

A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is still producing some very heavy rains.

Elsa's low-level center is a bit elongated from southwest to northeast, but surface synoptic data indicate that it has moved into northern North Carolina. The storm continues to gradually accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is 040/18 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next 1-2 days as the cyclone moves along with the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the previous one and similar to the multi-model consensus, TVCA.

The global models suggest that not much additional strengthening is likely. Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours so the official forecast shows an extratropical transition by late Friday. This is also supported by cyclone phase analyses of the model fields from Florida State University.

AL052021 Tropical Storm Elsa