1. As Elsa moves near Long Island and southern and coastal New England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by late this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Little Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
- Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
- New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the mid Atlantic coast early this morning. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states from late this morning into the afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass through the eastern mid Atlantic states early this morning, and move near or over the northeastern United States by late morning and this afternoon and tonight. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today, and Elsa is forecast to become a post tropical cyclone by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) was measured by a WeatherFlow site in Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, while a wind gust to 71 mph was observed in Beach Haven, New Jersey. These two wind reports appear to have been associated with nearby tornadoes. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches), based on nearby surface observations.

Elsa has become better organized this early Friday morning as evidenced by a tightly coiled convective band that wraps completely around the low-level circulation center, along with Doppler radar velocities of more than 80 kt detected between 3000-7000 ft. Upper-level outflow has expanded in all directions except the southwestern quadrant, and the GFS and ECMWF models have assessed the vertical wind shear to only be 10 kt and 13 kt, respectively, over the center. Wind gusts to 68 kt and 62 kt were recently measured in Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, and Beach Haven, New Jersey, respectively. However, radar data suggest that these wind gusts were possibly associated with the passage of nearby tornadic circulations and were not due to Elsa's larger wind field. The central pressure of 1000 mb is based on a nearby pressure report of 1000.6 mb from the Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, WeatherFlow site, but this value could be conservative. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on recent observations from offshore buoys.

The initial motion is estimated to be 045/27 kt. Elsa is forecast by the latest global and regional models to continue accelerating northeastward today through Saturday due to the system being embedded within deep-layer southwesterly mid-latitude flow. Elsa should move over southeastern New England today and over Atlantic Canada late tonight and on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast lies on top of the previous advisory track and is close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Elsa will be moving over 22-deg-C and cooler sea-surface temperatures by 6 hours and beyond, which should further hasten the ongoing extratropical transition process. This transition is expected to be completed in 18 hours or so when Elsa is forecast to be located over Atlantic Canada.