1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border eastward to Punta Palenque. The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Barbados
- Martinique
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Grenada and its dependencies
- The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
- The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
- Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 54.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the westnorthwest near 28 mph (44 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The structure of Elsa has changed little since the last advisory, with the low-level center partly exposed to the northwest of the somewhat-ragged primary convective band. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little during the last 6 h, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/25. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as the ECWMF and the ECMWF ensembles forecast a turn toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a continued west- northwestward to northwestward motion. In addition, the GFS ensemble members are spread from a continued west-northwestward motion toward the Yucatan Peninsula on one side to a northward motion east of the northern Bahamas on the other. The latter part of the new NHC forecast track will still lean more toward the deterministic GFS/UKMET solutions, but the confidence remains low. The new official forecast track again has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

The intensity forecast and its high uncertainty are also little changed from the last advisory. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned earlier, the fast forward motion could result in the upper and lower parts of the storm being unable to stay together, and this could limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also has the issues of possible land interaction and disagreements among the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be, although the latest model runs trended toward less favorable conditions north of about 22N. This uncertainty is highlighted by the UKMET forecasting Elsa to weaken to a trough near western Cuba while the GFS forecasts it to be a hurricane in the same area and time. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite.