WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East Rockaway New York to Watch Hill Rhode Island including most of Long Island and Long Island Sound has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 74.0 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move across portions of eastern New York this morning, then across western New England into southeastern Canada later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected today, and the system is expected to become a post-tropical low later this morning and dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb, and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory.

The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the models show the vortex dissipating by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.