WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound
- Southern Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. The rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: [TOP] Isolated tornadoes are possible today across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 74.5 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the New Jersey coast this afternoon and evening and move inland over the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland, and Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Weatherflow site at Lewes, Delaware, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (86 km/h). Another Weatherflow station at Seaside Heights, New Jersey, recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb, and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory.

The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the models show the vortex dissipating by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.