WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but widespread river flooding is not expected.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: [TOP] An isolated tornado or two are possible this evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located over eastern New Jersey near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western New England tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly over water to the east and southeast of the center. NOAA buoy 44065 recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 mph (68 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb, and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory.

The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the models show the vortex dissipating by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.