1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread river flooding is not expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most of Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 41.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Beven

WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued south and west of East Rockaway, New York.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- East Rockaway New York to Watch Hill Rhode Island including most of Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area for the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move across portions of southeastern New York tonight, then across western New England into southeastern Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Fay moves farther inland, and the system is expected to become a post- tropical low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) over water to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New Jersey. A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on surface observations. Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and become post-tropical on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system over southeastern Canada. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial position and motion. The new forecast lies close to the consensus models.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now occurring well away from the center.