1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be required for portions of this area early Sunday.

Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through today... Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches. From Sunday night into Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. From Tuesday onward... Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Sunday night over parts of the western Florida Peninsula.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the west northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later tonight and continue through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Sunday, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

Deep convection has increased in association with the remnants of Fred this evening with some lose banding noted in both satellite imagery and radar data from Key West. Satellite imagery and surface observations also indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined since this afternoon, but the system still lacks a well-defined center. Therefore, the system has not regained tropical cyclone status yet. The initial intensity remains 30 kt and is based on a few buoy and C-MAN observations over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Lower Florida Keys which have reported peak winds of 25-30 kt over the past several hours. The C-MAN site on Sand Key has reported slightly stronger winds, but that site is elevated.

The system has moved little during the past several hours, and since it lacks a well-defined center, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 300/08 kt. The disturbance is expected to begin a more definitive northwestward motion overnight or Sunday morning as it moves around the western extent of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The system is forecast to turn northward on Monday as it nears the northern Gulf of coast. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on the overall motion scenario, there is some cross-track spread that appears to be related to where the center re-forms in the short term. Overall there was some eastward shift to the guidance envelope and the official forecast was nudged in that direction, but it still lies to the west of the consensus aids. The NHC track forecast is closest to the GFEX track, which is a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to weaken and move northward during the next 12-24 hours. This should allow for a somewhat more conducive environment for the system to regain tropical cyclone status and strengthen on Sunday. However, continued moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely to hinder significant development, and the NHC intensity forecast only calls for gradual strengthening through 36-48 hours. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly and the global models indicate the circulation will dissipate by 96 hours.

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches are very likely to be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day.