1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico later today, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning Monday night. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for a portion of this area later this morning.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the north central Gulf coast from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Ochlockonee River, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm totals of 8 inches are anticipated. Through Tuesday The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. South Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1 3 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the north northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the east central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re develop into a tropical storm later today, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico until it makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

The remnants of Fred have been undergoing some noticeable changes early this morning, with one of those features being a curved band of deep convection having developed in the northeastern quadrant of the larger cyclonic envelope. A low-level jet (925-850 mb) was noted in the 0000 UTC upper-air air data and in the Key West VAD wind profile radar data late last night and early this morning. That speed maximum produced 2-hours worth of 34-kt and higher 10-meter winds at the Sand Key (SANF1) C-MAN station south of Key West, and that is the basis for the increasing the intensity to 35 kt for this advisory. That speed maximum is also likely responsible for the large increase in convection north of the Dry Tortugas, which also has helped to spin up a small mesovortex that passed over buoy 42026 between 0500-0600 UTC, causing the pressure to decrease 3.6 mb in one hour. That small-scale feature is moving westward and could become the the low-level center farther to the north of the current alleged center within the next few hours.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/07 kt. The system is expected to move north-northwestward or northwestward today and tonight through a narrow weakness in the subtropical ridge located between 85W-88W longitude based on 0000Z upper-air data. The system is forecast to turn northward on Monday as it nears the northern Gulf of coast and comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough forecast to drop southward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast had to be shifted farther to the east of the previous advisory, and subsequent forecast tracks may have to be shifted even further east if a new center develops farther to the north or northeast as per what recent satellite and buoy data suggest. The official forecasts track lies a little to the left of the tightly packed consensus track models.

Upper-level winds are expected to remain marginally conducive for strengthening due to at least some modest southwesterly wind shear affecting the cyclone for the next 48 hours. After landfall, Fred is forecast to weaken rapidly and the global models indicate the circulation should dissipate by around 96 hours.