1. Through early Thursday morning, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of Cuba Thursday.

3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and into next week.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early Saturday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle through Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Southeastern Bahamas
- The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 72.8 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general westnorthwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today, move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba tonight and Friday, and near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow strengthening is expected tonight through the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

The center of Fred is estimated to be located over extreme eastern Haiti. This position is based on continuity with the previous forecast and a small low-level cyclonic circulation noted in cloud-drift wind vectors that were based on the last few GOES-16 high-resolution visible satellite images. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft performed a quasi-synoptic surveillance mission this evening and released dropsondes while circumnavigating Hispaniola. Some of the dropsondes measured surface winds of 24-27 kt about 150 nmi north and northwest (in the Windward Passage) of the center, and these data support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The main convective cloud mass has been displaced to the southeast of the low-level center due to the west-northwesterly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. The global and regional models remain in surprisingly good agreement on Fred maintaining a steady west-northwestward motion through 48-60 hours as a strong ridge remains entrenched over the western Atlantic during that time period. Thereafter, however, the NHC model guidance diverges significantly, with the now much weaker HWRF model taking Fred more westward, while the GFS and ECMWF models move the cyclone northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near or just offshore the Florida west coast; the UKMET model lies between these two track extremes. The weaker HWRF track has been discounted given the NHC forecast that Fred will remain vertically coherent and restrengthen after moving back over water. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model. NOTE: the aforementioned NOAA WP-3D reconnaissance aircraft has been releasing dropsondes from approximately the 450-mb level and has also been collecting tail-Doppler radar data. These data should have been assimilated into the 0000 UTC model runs, which hopefully will provide better track and intensity model forecasts for the next advisory package.

Fred is forecast remain within a moderate to strong westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear regime throughout the forecast period by almost all of the global and regional models. As a result, rapid strengthening is not expected after Fred moves back over water. There is one caveat, however, and that is the ECMWF model forecasting the shear to weaken to 5-10 kt during the 36-72 hour period, which could allow for a little more strengthening than what the official forecast is currently indicating. The new NHC intensity prediction is identical to the previous one owing to the expectation that some degree of westerly shear will be affecting Fred throughout the entire forecast period. The official forecast follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity models.