1. Heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas and portions of Cuba today.

3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and into next week.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. This risk will spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle through Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Southeastern Bahamas
- The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropicalstorm strength during that time.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1014 mb (29.94 inches).

Fred is poorly organized this morning. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, along with 1-minute imagery from GOES-16, indicate that the circulation is barely closed. Dropsondes in the area reported surface pressures of 1013-1014 mb, and the maximum winds of near 30 kt are well to the northeast of the center. In addition, there is currently no organized convection anywhere near the center. Based on the evidence of the closed circulation, the system will be maintained as tropical depression for this advisory. However, the structure is currently closer to that of an open wave than a normal tropical cyclone.

The initial motion is now 300/12. The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic north of Fred should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next 36 h or so. This motion should take the depression away from the southeastern Bahamas and bring it near the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Fred should approach the western periphery of the ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and slow its forward speed. There remains some uncertainty as to the when and where of the turn, with the track guidance models remaining spread across a region from over Florida to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The new track forecast is little changed from the previous NHC track, and it lies a little to the east of the consensus models for the first 72 h or so.

Fred remains in an environment about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the next day or so, and this combined with the current disorganization should prevent significant strengthening during this time. While there is still disagreement between the global models on the forecast upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, the shear could lessen after 36 h and allow some intensification as the cyclone nears south Florida and moves into the eastern Gulf. The intensity guidance has trended weaker since the last advisory, with none of the guidance currently calling for Fred to reach hurricane strength. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one while Fred is over water, and it follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance.