1. From Friday into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern and central Florida, and into the Big Bend of Florida. By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma
- The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
- The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

From today into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning tonight or early Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 76.2 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this indicate that Fred's inner-core wind field Fred remains poorly organized. Also, data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft suggests that the 650-mb mid-level circulation center is titled at least 40 nmi to the east of the low-level center. The maximum 925-mb flight-level wind measured thus far has been 43 kt and the highest reliable SFMR surface wind speed sampled has been 33 kt. A blend of these data support maintaining a solid 30-kt intensity for this advisory, but Fred is right on the cusp of regaining tropical storm status.

Fred has slowed down some more, with the initial motion estimate an uncertain 295/08 kt. The uncertainty in Fred's forward motion is related to the speed due to the low-level center jumping around every time a small convective tower develops within the larger cloud mass. However, the general motion of the wind field and the associated pressure envelope is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees. Otherwise, there is no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is expected to continue moving west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion near or just offshore the Florida west coast in the 48-to-72-hour period. On days 4 and 5, a slower northward motion is forecast as Fred moves into a developing weakness in the ridge. The latest track guidance has become more divergent, with the GFS model dissipating and then redeveloping Fred over south Florida in about 48 hours, with the other models taking a weakening cyclone more westward. The exception is the westward-trending ECMWF model, which moves Fred along the Florida west coast. The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the east or right of the previous advisory track after 24 hours, but lies to the left of the ECMWF model and between the NOAA-HCCA and TVCA consensus track models.

Fred is forecast to remain under the influence of westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear for the next 72 hours. It is the magnitude of the shear that is in question. The GFS maintains 15-20 kt of shear for the next three days, whereas the ECMWF model decreases the shear to around 10 kt in the 24-to-60-hour period, with the latter scenario favoring some strengthening if Fred doesn't interact too much with the Florida peninsula. Due to the uncertainty in the amount of shear and land interaction that will be encountered, latest official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus model intensity forecasts.