1. From today into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Bonita Beach to Englewood, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
- Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma
- The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

Fred continues to produce heavy rains across eastern Cuba and portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning. However, despite the areas of heavy rain, the system remains poorly organized. Most of the deep convection is located to the east of the center and there is little evidence of banding features. The last pass by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters several hours ago and earlier ASCAT-A data indicated that maximum winds were around 30 kt. Since the storm has changed little in appearance since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data both planes collect will be helpful in assessing Fred's intensity and structure.

Fred continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This motion should persist for about another day as the storm continues to move in the flow on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a turn to the northwest and then the north is predicted as Fred moves around the western side of the ridge. Based on this expected motion, the storm should track just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight and near or across the Florida Keys on Saturday. After that time, there is more spread in the models due to the uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred makes the northwest and north turns. The range in the model solutions this cycle span from over the Florida peninsula to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. Since the typically best-performing models ended up almost on top of the previous prediction, very little change to the track was required.

The system is still battling about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, which is part of the reason why the convective pattern is disheveled. The shear is only expected to lessen slightly during the next couple of days, but since the environmental moisture is abundant and SSTs are very warm, gradual strengthening seems likely as Fred moves across the Florida Keys and then near or offshore of the west coast of Florida this weekend. The shear is expected to increase again before Fred makes its final landfall along the Florida panhandle in a few days, and that will likely prevent additional intensification. Steady weakening is expected after the storm moves inland. The intensity guidance is in very good agreement, and this forecast lies near the high end of the models.

It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be.