1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in that area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches in Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
- Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the the north coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

Although there has been a general increase in convection associated with Fred since this morning, the system remains disorganized with the low-level center moving farther inland over central Cuba. Earlier ASCAT data detected an area of 25-27 kt winds over water to the northeast of the center, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which could be a little generous.

Since the previous advisory, Fred has been moving nearly due westward, but the longer-term motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt. The cyclone is nearing the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is centered over the western Atlantic. This should cause Fred to turn west-northwestward tonight, and then northwestward on Saturday. The latest interpolated guidance that was initialized with the more southward and westward 18Z initial position shows a wider or more gradual northwestward turn, and therefore has shifted significantly westward, especially in the short term. However, the global models fields track the 850-mb vorticity center more along the northern coast of Cuba and some of those models suggest a center re-formation could occur on Saturday near the north coast of Cuba or over the Straits of Florida. As a result, the first 24-36 hours of the track forecast has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the trackers, leaving open the possibility that a center re-formation could occur. After that time, the NHC forecast lies along the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 12Z GFS. Some additional westward adjustments may be necessary until the track guidance stabilizes. It is worth noting that it isn't too surprising to see these type of models shifts with a system that remains quite disorganized.

Fred remains within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the model guidance generally indicates that this shear will continue during the next day or so. Since it will also take time for the system to recover after its passage over Cuba, only gradual strengthening is indicated during the next day or two. After that time, the system could be in a somewhat more favorable environment, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening until Fred reaches the northern Gulf Coast, which now doesn't occur until around 72 hours with the wider turn shown in the track forecast. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the various consensus aids, the statistical guidance, and the HWRF model, which all generally show the system peaking in 60-72 hours. The intensity forecast remains of lower-than-normal confidence due to Fred's continued interaction with land.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a chance of tornadoes will extend far to northeast and east of the center, and those hazards are likely to still affect portions of the Florida peninsula, despite the recent shift in the forecast track.