1. Tonight through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area on Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the westnorthwest is expected to occur later this morning, followed by a northwest motion by tonight. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

Interaction with land and southwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Fred this evening. It is very difficult to determine in infrared satellite imagery and recent surface observations from Cuba if a closed circulation still exists, however the system is maintained as a tropical depression for now. Scatterometer data, which should arrive very soon, and reconnaissance aircraft observations on Saturday morning should provide additional information on the system's intensity and structure.

The system still appears to be moving moving westward or 280/11 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery of a subtropical ridge extending over the western Atlantic, and Fred should turn west-northwestward overnight, and then northwestward on Saturday. The track guidance has again shifted westward, but the shift is not as large as was noted on the previous cycle. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left, closer to the consensus aids, but it still remains to the east of those models. Some additional westward adjustments in subsequent forecasts may be required.

As mentioned above, land interaction and southwesterly vertical will limit any attempt of re-organization overnight, however the system is expected to move off the northern coast of Cuba Saturday morning and the global model guidance suggests that a center re-formation could occur over the western portion of the Straits of Florida. The center re-formation shown by the guidance appears to be aided by an area of upper-level diffluent flow to the southeast of an upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although only a little strengthening is indicated in the official forecast through 36 hours, the environment could become a little more conducive on Sunday, and the NHC wind speed forecast again calls for gradual strengthening while Fred moves northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The updated intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the statistical guidance and the HCCA model. The intensity forecast continues to be of lower-than-normal confidence given the current disorganized structure of the system.