1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower Florida Keys later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area later today.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.8 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

The interaction with the landmass of Cuba has significantly disrupted the circulation of Fred. In fact, radar data from Cuba, satellite images, earlier ASCAT data, and surface observations suggest that the system is likely an open trough with the strongest winds and deep convection occurring to the south of central Cuba. Fred is being maintained as a tropical depression for now, but data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters later this morning will likely confirm if it is a depression or not. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. Bands of heavy rain are now spreading across the Florida Keys.

The initial motion of 295/11 kt is highly uncertain since its not clear if Fred has a center. Even though the storm has moved farther west than previously expected, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed much. Fred is expected to turn northwestward by tonight and northward by Sunday night as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The new track forecast has been nudged to the west again to be in better agreement with the latest model consensus aids. Based on the new track forecast, Fred is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys later today and make landfall along the western Florida Panhandle or Alabama coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Although Fred is very disorganized at the moment, the global models show the circulation becoming better defined tonight or on Sunday as the cyclone moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in slightly lower wind shear conditions. The storm is expected to strengthen some during the next couple of days, but significant intensification seems unlikely as southerly shear is anticipated to increase before the system reaches the Gulf coast on Monday. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images show an asymmetric cyclone with most of the associated convection and stronger winds on its east side while Fred moves across the Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, steady weakening is expected, and Fred is likely to dissipate by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.