1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday...

Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

SouthCentral and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...24 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the northnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall, while Fred is expected to weaken quickly after moving inland.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the remnants of Fred have re-developed into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level center near the northern end of a broadly curved convective band. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1008 mb, along with 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and SFMR wind estimates near 35 kt about 70 n mi northeast of the center. Based on these developments and data, the system was upgraded back to Tropical Storm Fred a couple of hours ago.

The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process, and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous advisory position. While the forecast guidance is basically unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about 40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time. Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening.

Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. The intensity guidance forecasts gradual intensification before landfall, and the official intensity forecast follows the guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 45 kt. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center.