1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect along the Florida coast east of Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the Florida Big Bend should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3 5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2 4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1 3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible this afternoon into early Monday along the west coast of Florida and over the Florida Panhandle.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Fred is moving toward the north northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.

After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models.

Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley just after 60 h.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center.