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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Fred
LOCATED
175 MI S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
1003 MB
MOVING
NNW AT 6 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021
Reconnaissance aircraft finds Fred has slowed down a little.
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
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DISCUSSION

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast, including portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland toward the Tennessee Valley, heavy rainfall and flooding may impact the southern and central Appalachians, and the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts northward and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast, including portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland toward the Tennessee Valley, heavy rainfall and flooding may impact the southern and central Appalachians, and the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts northward and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today...

Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...35 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...24 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 13 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today...

Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...35 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...24 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 13 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and satellites near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is moving toward the northnorthwest near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through this morning, followed by a turn toward the north this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and a nearby ship indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and satellites near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is moving toward the northnorthwest near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through this morning, followed by a turn toward the north this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and a nearby ship indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Fred remains a sheared tropical cyclone however the overall organization of the system has improved somewhat since this afternoon. The low-level center is embedded near the western edge of the primary convective mass, and there has been an overall increase in deep convection near and to the east of the center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Fred this evening has reported that the pressure has fallen to 999 mb and it has found winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The plane found a very small area of slightly stronger flight-level and SFMR winds well east of the center, but those winds appear to have been associated with a strong convective cell and are likely not representative of the system's overall intensity.

Fred is moving north-northwestward or 330/08 kt, and this motion should continue overnight. The dynamical model guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone will turn northward on Monday as it approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. A north- northeastward motion around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should commence by the time the system makes landfall, and this general heading should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. The dynamical models envelope did not change much and the latest consensus aids were essentially along the previous NHC track. As a result, little alteration was made to the previous official track forecast.

The cyclone is located within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. However, most of the intensity guidance continues to suggest that Fred will strengthen a little over the next 12-18 hours. As the system nears the northern Gulf coast, the SHIPS guidance forecasts some increase in shear and the intensity models reflect this by showing a leveling off of Fred's intensity at that time. After landfall, Fred should weaken quickly and dissipate over the Tennessee Valley in a little more than 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement within the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center.

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery indicated that Fred's low-level circulation center briefly emerged out from underneath the southwestern edge of the convective cloud shield between 0200-0400 UTC. The circulation center, however, has recently moved back underneath the edge of the main region of convection, with a new bust of thunderstorms having developed over or near the low-level center. Having said that, Fred still remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with Tallahassee NOAA Doppler radar data indicating that the upper-level circulation at around 30,000 ft is tilted about 40 nmi northeast of the low-level center. The last reports from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the central pressure had risen from 999 mb to 1004 mb during the time the low-level center was fully exposed southwest of the deep convection. However, the pressure has likely fallen again now the center is back underneath the convection. An intensity of 45 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on the last reliable reconnaissance SFMR data of about 45 kt, which corresponds well with a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak satellite shear-pattern intensity estimate.

Fred is moving northward now, or 355/08 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Fred will continue moving in a general northward motion today as the cyclone moves through a break in the subtropical ridge that is oriented east-to-west across northern Florida. Landfall is expected in the western Florida Panhandle region by late afternoon or evening today. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, and the new official forecast track has been nudged in that direction, but not as far east as the tightly packed consensus models owing to the strength of the ridge noted in 16/0000 UTC upper-air data.

Fred is forecast to remain in moderate vertical wind shear conditions throughout the 48-h forecast period. However, the shear vector is expected to gradually back around from the current southwesterly direction to more of a south-southwesterly component right up until landfall occurs, which will align more with Fred's track direction. This reduction in the effective shear across the cyclone should allow for some additional strengthening until landfall occurs, with the distinct possibility that Fred could reach a peak intensity of 55 kt in 18 hours. After landfall, the combination of land interaction and the vertical shear increasing to more than 20 kt should result in rapid weakening, with Fred forecast to dissipate by 60 hours over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center.

Fred remains a sheared tropical cyclone however the overall organization of the system has improved somewhat since this afternoon. The low-level center is embedded near the western edge of the primary convective mass, and there has been an overall increase in deep convection near and to the east of the center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Fred this evening has reported that the pressure has fallen to 999 mb and it has found winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The plane found a very small area of slightly stronger flight-level and SFMR winds well east of the center, but those winds appear to have been associated with a strong convective cell and are likely not representative of the system's overall intensity.

Fred is moving north-northwestward or 330/08 kt, and this motion should continue overnight. The dynamical model guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone will turn northward on Monday as it approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. A north- northeastward motion around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should commence by the time the system makes landfall, and this general heading should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. The dynamical models envelope did not change much and the latest consensus aids were essentially along the previous NHC track. As a result, little alteration was made to the previous official track forecast.

The cyclone is located within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. However, most of the intensity guidance continues to suggest that Fred will strengthen a little over the next 12-18 hours. As the system nears the northern Gulf coast, the SHIPS guidance forecasts some increase in shear and the intensity models reflect this by showing a leveling off of Fred's intensity at that time. After landfall, Fred should weaken quickly and dissipate over the Tennessee Valley in a little more than 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement within the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center.

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery indicated that Fred's low-level circulation center briefly emerged out from underneath the southwestern edge of the convective cloud shield between 0200-0400 UTC. The circulation center, however, has recently moved back underneath the edge of the main region of convection, with a new bust of thunderstorms having developed over or near the low-level center. Having said that, Fred still remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with Tallahassee NOAA Doppler radar data indicating that the upper-level circulation at around 30,000 ft is tilted about 40 nmi northeast of the low-level center. The last reports from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the central pressure had risen from 999 mb to 1004 mb during the time the low-level center was fully exposed southwest of the deep convection. However, the pressure has likely fallen again now the center is back underneath the convection. An intensity of 45 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on the last reliable reconnaissance SFMR data of about 45 kt, which corresponds well with a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak satellite shear-pattern intensity estimate.

Fred is moving northward now, or 355/08 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Fred will continue moving in a general northward motion today as the cyclone moves through a break in the subtropical ridge that is oriented east-to-west across northern Florida. Landfall is expected in the western Florida Panhandle region by late afternoon or evening today. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, and the new official forecast track has been nudged in that direction, but not as far east as the tightly packed consensus models owing to the strength of the ridge noted in 16/0000 UTC upper-air data.

Fred is forecast to remain in moderate vertical wind shear conditions throughout the 48-h forecast period. However, the shear vector is expected to gradually back around from the current southwesterly direction to more of a south-southwesterly component right up until landfall occurs, which will align more with Fred's track direction. This reduction in the effective shear across the cyclone should allow for some additional strengthening until landfall occurs, with the distinct possibility that Fred could reach a peak intensity of 55 kt in 18 hours. After landfall, the combination of land interaction and the vertical shear increasing to more than 20 kt should result in rapid weakening, with Fred forecast to dissipate by 60 hours over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center.

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