1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts northward and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today...

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the MidAtlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and MidAtlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...35 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...24 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 13 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.8 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery indicated that Fred's low-level circulation center briefly emerged out from underneath the southwestern edge of the convective cloud shield between 0200-0400 UTC. The circulation center, however, has recently moved back underneath the edge of the main region of convection, with a new bust of thunderstorms having developed over or near the low-level center. Having said that, Fred still remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with Tallahassee NOAA Doppler radar data indicating that the upper-level circulation at around 30,000 ft is tilted about 40 nmi northeast of the low-level center. The last reports from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the central pressure had risen from 999 mb to 1004 mb during the time the low-level center was fully exposed southwest of the deep convection. However, the pressure has likely fallen again now the center is back underneath the convection. An intensity of 45 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on the last reliable reconnaissance SFMR data of about 45 kt, which corresponds well with a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak satellite shear-pattern intensity estimate.

Fred is moving northward now, or 355/08 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Fred will continue moving in a general northward motion today as the cyclone moves through a break in the subtropical ridge that is oriented east-to-west across northern Florida. Landfall is expected in the western Florida Panhandle region by late afternoon or evening today. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, and the new official forecast track has been nudged in that direction, but not as far east as the tightly packed consensus models owing to the strength of the ridge noted in 16/0000 UTC upper-air data.

Fred is forecast to remain in moderate vertical wind shear conditions throughout the 48-h forecast period. However, the shear vector is expected to gradually back around from the current southwesterly direction to more of a south-southwesterly component right up until landfall occurs, which will align more with Fred's track direction. This reduction in the effective shear across the cyclone should allow for some additional strengthening until landfall occurs, with the distinct possibility that Fred could reach a peak intensity of 55 kt in 18 hours. After landfall, the combination of land interaction and the vertical shear increasing to more than 20 kt should result in rapid weakening, with Fred forecast to dissipate by 60 hours over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center.