1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Storm Surge Warning area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and will spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Big Bend area is extended eastward to the Steinhatchee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the Steinhatchee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3 5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2 4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1 3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions have begun to occur in portions of the Tropical Storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could causing life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over western Georgia on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service observation site at Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 37 mph (59 km/h). NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km) south southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).

Fred became better organized on satellite and radar images this morning, with the center fairly well embedded within a small CDO and a large convective band over the eastern portion of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found flight-level winds that supported an intensity of 50 kt, and data from the aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 993 mb, although the most recent pressures appeared to have leveled off. The satellite and radar data also show a dry slot over the southeastern quadrant.

Fred is over very warm waters of near 30 deg C and within a fairly moist mid-level atmosphere. A little more strengthening is possible prior to landfall, but significant southwesterly shear is likely to limit strengthening. Also, the storm has little time remaining over water. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM guidance.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and WSR-88D data from Tallahassee and Eglin AFB indicate that Fred is a little east of the previous track. It is not certain whether this is due to a slight reformation of the center nearer to the strongest convection, but that is certainly a possibility. Based on the most recent fixes, the current motion estimate is just slightly east of north, or 010/9 kt. Fred is moving between the western side of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United States. A slight bend of the track toward the north-northeast with a little acceleration is expected during the next couple of days. The official forecast is just a bit to the east of the previous one, and follows the most recent multi-model consensus.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center.