1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is ongoing along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coastline within the warning area over the next few hours and will continue to spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County line is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Steinhatchee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...3 5 ft Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL...2 4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Indian Pass including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1 3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Tropical Storm warning area for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could causing life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama. The tornado threat will shift northward into parts of northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Tuesday.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 85.3 West. Fred is moving toward the north northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Fred will move from western Georgia on Tuesday across the southern Appalachian Mountains to West Virginia by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression by early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph ( 79 km/h) with a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) was recently observed at the Apalachicola Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Radar data indicate that the center of Fred made landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle a little while ago, and it is currently moving farther inland. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the storm reached a peak intensity of 55 kt just before landfall. Assuming some weakening since crossing the coast, the current intensity estimate is 50 kt. Fairly rapid weakening will occur while the center moves over land, and the cyclone will probably be reduced to tropical depression status by tomorrow morning. The official intensity forecast for the next day or so is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model guidance.

Radar fixes indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 020/8 kt. During the next day or two Fred should move, with increasing forward speed, between a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United states. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus model prediction, HCCA.

Although it is weakening, Fred is likely to bring flooding rains over portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days.