1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, will continue over inland sections of the eastern Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia during the next few hours.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, primarily in gusts will continue over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Tuesday.

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia on Tuesday, across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday night, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression overnight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in the Marianna, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

The center of Fred has continued to move inland across the Florida Panhandle this evening, and is now located over extreme southeastern Alabama. Doppler velocities from NWS Doppler radars have gradually decreased and that data, along with recent surface observations, indicate that Fred is now a 35-kt tropical storm. Weakening should continue over the next several hours and Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Additional weakening will occur on Tuesday while the circulation moves inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. The global model guidance indicates that Fred's circulation will open into a trough of low pressure on Wednesday near the central Appalachians.

Fred is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid-tropospheric ridge over the western Atlantic and a weak mid-level trough over the east-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is lies near the middle of the tightly packed dynamical model guidance.

Although Fred is weakening, it is expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days.