1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to begin in the Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast.

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Dominican Republic this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late today.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today. Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next few hours, and in portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 67.6 West. Fred is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general westnorthwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center nears the coast of the Dominican Republic later this morning. Some weakening is likely thereafter while the system interacts with Hispaniola.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Data from satellites, the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation has become better defined since the previous advisory and,thus, the disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fred. Although the surface and low-level circulations are vertically aligned, radar data indicate that the mid-level circulation is still tilted about 40 n mi to the south. However, that mid-level feature has been steadily gaining ground from its earlier 100-nmi southeastward displacement. Radar Doppler velocity data, aircraft 850-mb flight-level wind data of 43 kt and SFMR surface winds of 33 kt, plus earlier surface observations of sustained 33-kt winds, support an initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is westward or 270/15 kt. However, this should be a short-term motion overnight due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico to the north. By early Wednesday morning, Fred is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion and pass through the Mona Passage, reaching the eastern Dominican Republic shortly after sunrise. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by the global models to basically remain static across the central and western Atlantic Ocean for the next five days. Given this pattern, Fred is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion through 96 hours, remaining just offshore the north coast of Haiti and Cuba during that time. After emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on day 4, Fred is forecast to gradually turn more north-northwestward as the cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. The latest NHC track forecast models strongly support this track scenario, although there was a slight northward shift in the guidance envelope on this cycle. The new official track forecast was shifted a little north of the previous one through 72 hours, and then lies down the middle of the tightly packed track consensus models.

Conditions remain favorable for some strengthening before Fred reaches Hispaniola in about 12 h, but the intensity likely won't be much stronger than 40-45 kt at landfall. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola on Wednesday should result in some weakening, but tropical-storm-force winds could occur along the the north coast of the island if the center shifts a little more to right of the forecast track. After emerging back over water by late Wednesday, only slow strengthening is forecast in the 36-60-h time period due to westerly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt expected to affect the cyclone. On days 4 and 5, however, Fred is expected to be moving over warmer sea-surface temperatures and into a much weaker wind shear regime, which would favor more robust strengthening. As a result, some of the regional and statistical- dynamical intensity models bring Fred near or to hurricane strength during that time. However, there is uncertainty Fred's structure after interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba, and continued disagreement between the global models on how the upper-level wind flow pattern near the cyclone will evolve, which ranges from favorable anticyclonic outflow to strong southwesterly shear. Given these factors, the NHC intensity forecast was only nudged slightly higher than the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the SHIPS and LGEM models.

Fred's satellite and radar presentation have changed little since it became a tropical storm yesterday evening. The system consists mainly of a circularly shaped area of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70C on infrared images, with some rain bands trying to wrap around the center on radar images. The outer banding features have become indistinct on satellite imagery at the moment. Upper-level outflow remains well defined. Wind gusts to tropical storm force were reported at elevated sites at Cabo Rojo on the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in agreement with Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from UW-CIMSS.

A west-northwestward motion appears to have resumed, at about 14 kt. The system should continue to move on this heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed, on the south side of a mid-level subtropical ridge, for the next 2-3 days. Around 72 hours, Fred should begin to turn to the right as it nears the western periphery of the ridge. During the next 3-5 days a generally northwestward track, toward a weakness in the ridge, is likely. The official forecast track is about the same as the previous one, and in good agreement with the latest TVCA and HCCA model consensus guidance. Again, users are advised that 4- and 5-day track forecasts have average errors of 175 and 200 miles, respectively.

Although the vertical shear is currently low, which would normally be conducive for strengthening, the cyclone will soon begin to interact with the land mass of Hispaniola. This should cause some weakening later today and tonight. Some restrengthening should occur after the system moves away from that island. However, given the likely disruption of the circulation by the mountains, Fred may be slow to regain intensity. Moreover, an upper-level low and trough near Florida in 2-3 days could impart increasing west-southwesterly shear and limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and the LGEM guidance. As usual, there is significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast for the latter part of the period.