1. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late today, and in portions of Cuba by tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises across southern Florida.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today and tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 69.1 West. Fred is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general westnorthwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola today.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. La Romana, Dominican Republic, recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Morning satellite imagery and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation of Fred has become better defined south of the eastern Dominican Republic. The NOAA plane reported maximum flight-level winds of 40-45 kt, and SFMR winds of up to 50 kt, although these were measured near the coast and the reliability is unknown. The central pressure is near 1006 mb. Based on these data and a dropsonde northeast of the center, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The low-level center is partly exposed near the western edge of the convection, which has decreased in coverage since yesterday.

The center has been moving more westward for the past few hours. However, the longer term motion is 290/14. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Fred should continue moving generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone nears the western periphery of the ridge. The new forecast track is little changed from the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track may be necessary as the center interacts with the mountains of Hispaniola during the next 12-24 hours.

Fred is now in an environment of 15-20 kt of westerly vertical shear produced in part by an upper-level trough near the Florida Peninsula, and the global models suggests that moderate shear should persist for at least the next 48-60 h. This, combined with land interaction, should cause Fred to weaken as it crosses Hispaniola, and then at best slowly re-intensify after it emerges over the water. After that time, the global models suggest the trough should weaken as a large upper-level anticyclone forms near or just southeast of Fred. This evolution could let the shear decrease a little and allow a little more strengthening, particularly when Fred is over the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance.