CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 69.1 West. Fred is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general westnorthwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola today.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. La Romana, Dominican Republic, recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).