CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Southeastern Bahamas
- The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

By Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic, and these conditions should continue today. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 70.1 West. Fred is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general westnorthwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola this afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through tonight as the center of Fred crosses Hispaniola. Slow reintensification is expected beginning Thursday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).