1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 93.7 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to westsouthwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening or tonight.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. More strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (50 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 983 mb (29.03 inches) is based on data collected by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.

Deep convection has increased near the center of Grace overnight with improved banding structure over the eastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 72 kt and SFMR winds of 58 kt during the aircraft's final pass through the northern portion of the storm prior to 06Z. Based on those observations, the initial wind speed was increased to 60 kt on the 06Z intermediate advisory, and it remains at that value for now. Grace is close to re-gaining hurricane strength, and the next reconnaissance mission should be in the storm around 1200 UTC this morning.

Grace will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of Campeche today. That, along with light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions, are expected to allow for re-intensification until landfall in mainland Mexico tonight. The updated intensity forecast brings Grace to a 75-kt hurricane in 12 hours, and the storm could be slightly stronger when it makes landfall overnight. By 24 h, the center is forecast to be inland, and Grace will likely already to have begun to weaken. Rapid weakening should occur on Saturday as Grace moves farther inland over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, and the circulation is likely to dissipate in around 48 hours. The remnants of Grace are expected to move into the Pacific where they are likely to spawn a new tropical cyclone.

The cyclone has been moving westward or 270/14 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-southwestward until dissipation occurs in a couple days. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory.