1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICOATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening, with tropical storm conditions expected later this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 94.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches) is based on data collected by the aircraft.

Grace is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Its structure has continued to improve in satellite imagery this morning, with more pronounced curved banding in its northern and eastern semicircles and good upper-level outflow. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 92 kt and peak SFMR winds of 74 kt during a pass through the northeast quadrant earlier this morning. These data support increasing the initial intensity of 75 kt, which makes Grace a hurricane once again. Dropsonde data from the aircraft indicate the minimum pressure has fallen to 982 mb.

The warm waters of the Bay of Campeche are expected to support additional intensification through landfall in mainland Mexico later this evening or tonight, despite some light to moderate northerly wind shear. Since the reconnaissance data revealed Grace is strengthening quicker than previously forecast, the official NHC intensity forecast was increased in the short-term. Grace is now forecast to become a 90-kt hurricane in 12 h, which lies on the high end of the intensity guidance. The center of Grace will be well inland by 24 h, and rapid weakening is forecast thereafter as the cyclone moves over the mountains of central Mexico. Although Grace is forecast to dissipate by 48 h, its remnants will likely move into the eastern Pacific and lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone later this weekend or early next week.

The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/12 kt. Grace should continue moving westward to west-southwestward through landfall to the south of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The official NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and has been adjusted just a bit southward based on the latest multi-model consensus aids.