1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely to continue along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico for the next few hours within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds during the next few hours near where Grace made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico over the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico for the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located inland near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 98.3 West. Grace is moving toward the westsouthwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Grace will continue to move farther inland and reach central Mexico later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico today, and the hurricane is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by this afternoon, and then dissipate tonight or Sunday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.93 inches).

Hurricane Grace made landfall around 0600 UTC this morning near Tecolutla, Mexico with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the hurricane earlier tonight and found winds supporting an intensity of 105 kt. After the aircraft left the cyclone, the satellite appearance continued to improve with the eye clearing and becoming better-defined. Therefore, it is assumed that some additional strengthening occurred before landfall. Since that time, the inner-core of Grace has moved inland over eastern Mexico and recent radar and satellite images show a pronounced degradation of the eye and eyewall. Based on this trend, the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 95 kt.

Grace is moving a little south of west, or 260/12 kt. A westward motion is forecast to continue through tonight until the cyclone dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is in line with the track consensus guidance.

The hurricane's forecast motion will take it over the mountainous terrain of interior Mexico today into tonight. Therefore, rapid weakening is expected and the latest NHC intensity forecast for Grace is near the Decay SHIPS guidance. By tonight, the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over the higher terrain. As mentioned in previous advisories, the mid-level vortex of Grace is forecast to survive the westward passage over Mexico and reach the eastern Pacific late this weekend where a new tropical cyclone is expected to form.