1. Heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola Monday and Monday night.

3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across Cuba beginning Tuesday morning, but forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
- Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, and in Haiti today into tonight.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible through today.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general westward or westnorthwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola later today, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or just south of westcentral Cuba on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next two to three days.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated Grace earlier this evening and found maximum flight level winds just less than 40 kt at 925 mb, which supports Grace's estimated 30 kt intensity. The plane also found that the depression still has a slightly elongated but closed surface circulation. During the past few hours, satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in convective banding features and associated heavy rain associated with Grace. That activity highlights the primary threat from Grace during the next 24 hours: prolonged heavy rainfall that could lead to flash and urban flooding along with the potential for mudslides over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

The forecast for Grace is incredibly challenging. Imminent interactions with the high terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could cause Grace to dissipate as soon as Monday evening. However, a track south of Cuba, as shown by recent runs of the GFS and COAMPS-TC, may allow Grace to maintain its tropical cyclone status and possibly even intensify. The HWRF even shows it becoming a hurricane over the western Caribbean, with the caveat that the model has produced several poor forecasts for Grace thus far. Although it is not explicitly forecast, slight intensification is still possible tonight or tomorrow morning before the center of Grace moves inland. After that time, the NHC forecast assumes Grace will continue as a tropical depression through 72 h. Once/if Grace makes it to the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in 3-4 days, it could have an opportunity to reorganize and intensify, and this is again shown in the official intensity forecast. That said, users are encouraged to not focus on the exact track or intensity forecasts at days 4 and 5.

The track guidance has shifted south for this advisory, and generally calls for Grace to move westward to west-northwestward through the forecast period. The official track forecast has been shifted a little south once again, but is north of the most recent multi-model consensus.