1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola today and tonight.

3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across southeastern Cuba and Jamaica beginning Tuesday morning, and the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
- Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, and in Haiti today into tonight.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to west northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

The structure and organization of Tropical Depression Grace has changed little over the past several hours. An earlier ASCAT-B overpass showed that the circulation is elongated from the NE-SW, with peak winds of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated Grace a few hours ago, and indicated that the cyclone refuses to make the decrease in forward speed and turn to the west-northwest that most of the guidance has been calling for. The aircraft also measured peak flight level winds of 37 kt at 925 mb, which equates to about 28 kt at the surface. Although there were some SFMR vectors of tropical storm force, those winds were sampled in heavy rainfall and were likely not representative of the actual surface winds. Based on this data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt for this advisory.

Grace is moving toward the west, or 275/13 kt. The forecast models continue to make a shift to the south, as they are coming into very good agreement on maintaining a strong mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The latest track forecast was adjusted a little south of the previous one through the first couple of days of the forecast, with a larger shift to the south farther out in time. This forecast track remains to the north of the track consensus, so if the track models remain consistent, additional adjustments to the south will likely be made in the next forecast cycle.

The evolution of the forecast track of Grace is having major implications on the future intensity of the cyclone. It is becoming more likely that the system will track over only the southern portion of Hispaniola, which would result in a lesser disruption of Grace's circulation. Furthermore, the more southern track would bring the cyclone over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean beginning on Tuesday. The environment over that portion of the Caribbean is not all that hostile, with about 10-15 kt of northerly shear being the main inhibiting factor for intensification. By midweek, Grace may interact with the Yucatan Peninsula, which should limit strengthening or perhaps weaken the system depending on the track. Once over the western Gulf of Mexico, late in the forecast period, some additional strengthening is expected, although the wind shear is forecast to increase slightly during that time frame. The latest NHC intensity forecast was raised slightly to reflect the additional time expected over water. However, this forecast is a little lower than most of the guidance.