1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola this evening and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey
- Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Entire coast of Haiti
- Jamaica
- Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti through tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Grace is moving toward the westnorthwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to westnorthwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti tonight. It will then move between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba on Tuesday, near the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to regain tropical storm status on Tuesday. Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Grace may have regained tropical storm status just before the center moved across the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican Republic around midday. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured peak 925-mb winds of 45 kt very near the coast, which would equate to an intensity right at the threshold of tropical storm. Since then, however, land interaction has likely weakened these winds, and Grace is still estimated to be a 30-kt depression. The center appears to have moved back over water just to the south of the Haitian coast.

Grace has been moving a little slower today, possibly due to interaction with the terrain of Hispaniola, and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/11 kt. A mid-level high centered over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the southeastern United States and northern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. This pattern should keep Grace on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period, moving across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The most significant model trends are on days 4 and 5, when many of the track models are indicating a slight west-southwest bend as the cyclone approaches mainland Mexico. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward at most forecast times, but that may be within the noise level of typical model run-to-run variability.

Once the center of Grace moves away from Hispaniola tomorrow, the deep, warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and relatively light deep-layer shear should be conducive for strengthening. Model data suggest that some mid-level shear could come into play at times, so it's not a sure bet that conditions will be ideal for significant strengthening. Partly for that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is near or just below the intensity consensus. However, even this new forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast, and many of the models indicate that Grace could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula in about 60 hours. After passing the Yucatan Peninsula, additional strengthening is likely, and the new forecast now explicitly shows Grace reaching hurricane intensity over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.