1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. The risk of strong winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
- Saba and Sint Eustatius
- Sint Maarten
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.1 West. The depression is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west or westnorthwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Over the past few hours, the system moved just to the north of a buoy owned by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. The buoy's winds backed from northwest to west to south, indicating that the system has a closed surface circulation. In addition, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T2.0, and the system is therefore being designated as a tropical depression on this advisory. Maximum winds remain 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the Dvorak estimates.

The circulation has closed off despite the depression moving quickly westward (275 degrees) at about 19 kt. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48-60 hours, with the depression being driven quickly westward across the Leeward Islands and toward the Greater Antilles by ridging to the north. After 60 hours, there is considerably more spread, with the regional dynamical models keeping the system farther south over the Caribbean Sea, and most of the other models indicating a turn toward the west-northwest, following a track similar to Tropical Depression Fred. The NHC track forecast generally favors the latter scenario and is very close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

During the next 2 days, the depression is expected to move beneath an upper-level ridge axis, which should allow the deep-layer shear to fall below 10 kt, with the system also moving over warmer waters and through an environment of increased moisture. However, the depression's fast motion, as well as the possible development of some mid-level westerly shear, could stunt the rate of strengthening. Due to these conflicting factors, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side and is not quite as high as the solutions shown by the SHIPS and HCCA models. The HWRF model is quite aggressive, bringing the depression to hurricane strength by day 3, but that model is an extreme outlier compared to the other guidance. After 48 hours, the current forecast takes the center of the depression over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, a scenario that would cause weakening and suppress the system's intensity. As is typically the case, the system could get stronger than shown in the official forecast if it ends up moving over less land, or dissipate entirely if it moves over land for too long.