1. Tropical storm conditions will continue today across the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Herrero and the Hurricane Warning from Punta Herrero to Tulum. The Hurricane Warning from Tulum to Cancun has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo, and a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche
- The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread westward today across the northern Yucatan peninsula within the tropical storm warning area. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Elevated water levels will gradually recede along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 88.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a general westward to west southwestward motion at a slower speed over the weekend. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to continue to move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Grace will likely make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher. Additional weakening is possible while Grace moves across land today. Re intensification is likely after the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

Grace made landfall as a hurricane near Tulum, Mexico around 0945 UTC (445am CDT). A storm chaser in Tulum reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb at the time of landfall. Since then, the cyclone has moved further inland where observations are far more sparse, and we have no recent in situ observations to assist the intensity analysis. The intensity is therefore set at 55 kt, based in part on the inland decay wind model built into the SHIPS model. The central pressure estimate of 995 mb is likewise uncertain.

Some additional weakening is likely this afternoon while Grace continues to cross the Yucatan peninsula. The tropical storm should emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and re-strengthening is anticipated shortly thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected to be quite conducive for strengthening, but it will likely take Grace at least a little time to redevelop its inner-core after disruption by land. That could act to limit the rate at which the cyclone will intensify at first. The HWRF and HMON both suggest that the most significant reintensification could occur in the last 12 hours before final landfall occurs in mainland Mexico, and that scenario seems likely. It would not be surprising if Grace strengthened slightly more between the 36 h forecast point over water and the 48 h point inland, particularly if the hurricane moves slightly slower, giving it more time over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, Grace should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Overall, the NHC intensify forecast is very similar to the previous advisory.

Grace continues to move to the west near 16 kt. A westward or west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 12 hours or so, after which a strong-deep layer ridge extending well over the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern U.S. will steer Grace westward until landfall. Only minor adjustments were made to the official track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. Although the tropical cyclone will quickly dissipate after it moves inland, the ridge will likely steer its remnants further westward toward the eastern North Pacific, where it could contribute to the formation of a new tropical cyclone there.