1. Tropical storm conditions will continue this afternoon and evening across the northern Yucatan Peninsula but should subside later tonight.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche
- The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over northcentral portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall by early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 91.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to westnorthwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to westsouthwestward motion at a slower speed beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to move away from the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Intensification is likely now that the center has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 995 mb (29.38 inches).

Grace has now been inland for almost 12 hours and the inner core structure has been gradually decaying. In fact, the low-level center is now partially exposed to the north of the mid-level vortex which still has the majority of the deep convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt this advisory, assuming a bit more weakening of the low-level center has occurred since 1800 UTC.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for Grace to restrengthen after the storm moves offshore this evening. However, it will take a bit of time for the inner-core to reorganize before a faster rate of intensification can occur. After that process occurs, significant intensification is possible, and the latest intensity forecast makes Grace a hurricane again by 24 hours and is near the upper end of the intensity guidance by 36 hours when Grace will be just inland over Mexico. However, it remains possible that the storm could intensify more than indicated between the 24 and 36 hour points, when both the global and regional high-res hurricane model guidance suggests Grace will be near peak intensity.

Grace is still moving a bit north of due west at 280/13 kt. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 6-12 hours and Grace should be emerging offshore of the western Yucatan Peninsula later this evening. Thereafter, a strong mid-level ridge oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of Grace is likely to steer the cyclone towards the west, and then west-southwest as it nears mainland Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, staying close to the multi-model consensus aids. Although Grace is likely to dissipate by 60 hours over the high terrain of Central Mexico, the mid-level circulation should survive and emerge into the East Pacific. This feature could contribute to the formation of a new tropical cyclone in that basin.