1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula east of Progresso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche
- The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible into early Friday morning. Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maxim totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall Friday night. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday or Friday night. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength on Friday. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

During the past few hours, the center of Grace has emerged over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated convection is currently poorly organized and mainly occuring in a band to the east of the center. However, data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that 55 kt surface winds are occurring about 20 n mi northeast of the center, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The aircraft also reported that the minimum central pressure was near 994 mb.

Conditions appear favorable for re-intensification once the convection becomes better organized near the center, a process that could take several more hours. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt in 24 h, just before the center makes landfall on the coast of mainland Mexico. The intensity for this part of the forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and is near the intensity consensus. After landfall, Grace is expected to weaken rapidly, with the circulation dissipating over the mountains of Mexico just after 48 h. The remnants of Grace are expected to subsequently move into the Pacific and develop into a new tropical cyclone there.

The cyclone has nudged a little northward since the last advisory, and the initial motion is 280/14 kt. Other than that, there is little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track. Strong mid-level ridging should steer Grace westward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a west-southwestward motion through 48 h. This motion should take the center across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to a landfall in mainland Mexico in just over 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should continue west-southwestward into the mountains of Mexico until dissipation. The new forecast track is close to the consensus models and has only minor adjustments since the previous forecast.