1. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None..

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Barra del Tordo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding should continue to subside along the coast of Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast of Mexico for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi, 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Over Ciudad de Mexico, 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 99.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a generally westward motion is expected into early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over central and westcentral Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while the system moves over the mountains of central and westcentral Mexico today and tonight, and Grace is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today and dissipate by early Sunday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Grace has continued to move over east-central Mexico since making landfall around 0600 UTC. Visible satellite images show that the system's organization is degrading, but there is still some deep convection near the center with a few showers and thunderstorms near the coast. Assuming a slightly faster rate of weakening than given by the Decay-SHIPS output to account for the mountainous terrain, the advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Additional rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and tonight. Grace is likely to weaken below tropical storm strength tonight and dissipate tomorrow morning.

After making a southwestward turn just after landfall, the current motion is just a little south of west, or 250/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should cause a generally westward motion until dissipation on Sunday.

The mid-level remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward after the surface center dissipates, and to emerge into the eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is a good chance that this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that basin by early next week.