1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over northwestern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday night.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
- Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana
- Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday:

Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.8 West. Grace is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westnorthwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over westcentral Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible until Grace moves over Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast while the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Some restrengthening could occur if the center moves back over water on Tuesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Grace remains a disorganized system, with only slight evidence of curved bands of deep convection on satellite imagery. WSR-88D radar data from San Juan show broad rotation of the precipitation echoes, but no definite center. The advisory intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB. We are waiting for additional observations in the system from an upcoming NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission into Grace in a few hours.

Grace is in an environment of moderate shear and reasonably moist mid-level environmental air. Therefore some strengthening is expected before the system reaches Hispaniola tomorrow morning. Thereafter, the future intensity of Grace is dependent on how much the circulation interacts with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Weakening is likely due to the expected passage over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, and some restrengthening could occur if the center emerges over water near the Windward Passage. Grace is forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength while moving near the northern coast of Cuba. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast in 2-5 days.

The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 285/14 kt. A well-defined mid-level high pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic should maintain a general west-northwestward motion for the next several days. The global models are in reasonable agreement on a track near/over the Greater Antilles, including Cuba, during the next several days and over the central Gulf of Mexico in the latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast has been changed little from the previous one and is very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA, solution.