1. Hanna is forecast to strengthen and it is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

2. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Watch from San Luis Pass to High Island Texas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight or Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches through Sunday night in south Texas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 93.2 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue today. A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion through the weekend. On the forecast track, center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until the tropical cyclone makes landfall. Steady weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. During the past few hours, a ship located east of the center reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h). Reports from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft this morning and nearby ship D5DY4 indicate that Hanna has strengthened a little. However, the aircraft data also showed that Hanna's center had moved or reformed a little farther north near the northern edge of the convective cloud mass. A partial SSMI/S pass around 1231Z suggested that a mid-level eye feature could be forming, but it also possible that a dry slot may be intruding into the cloud shield from the northwest and west. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on aircraft SFMR surface winds of 38-40 kt, and the 1200Z D5DY5 ship report of 48 kt at 89 meters elevation, which reduces to a 38-kt 10-meter wind speed.

Even with the earlier northwestward jump in the center position, reconnaissance and microwave satellite data indicate that Hanna's motion is still west-northwestward or 285/08 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous official track forecast or reasonings over the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement that mid-level ridge will build to the north and northwest of Hanna over the next couple of days, resulting in the cyclone turning westward by tonight and on Saturday. It should then turn west-southwestward Saturday night and Sunday. The new NHC forecast track continues to show the center making landfall along the south-central coast of Texas within the tropical storm warning area Saturday afternoon or evening, which is in good agreement with the various consensus models.

Hanna's convective cloud shield remains very asymmetrical with the bulk of the convection confined to the southern semicircle despite the otherwise symmetrical and expanding upper-level outflow pattern. More recently, some deep convection has developed near the center and the aforementioned possible mid-level eye feature. Hanna is forecast to remain in relatively low vertical wind shear regime and over SSTs of 30C or more, a combination that typically favors significant intensification. However, nearby dry mid-level air noted in 1200Z soundings from Corpus Christi and Brownsville has been eroding and preventing convection from developing in the northwest quadrant and near the center, which has inhibited strengthening over the past couple of days despite the low shear conditions. The latest global model guidance shows the dry air mixing out in about 24 h just prior to landfall, which should allow for at least gradual strengthening until landfall occurs in about 30 h or so. However, if an eyewall forms during the next 12 h, then it is possible that Hanna could be near 60 kt when it makes landfall. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity forecasts.