1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday morning.

3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay Texas * Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay TX...1 to 3 ft North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area later tonight or Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in lifethreatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas.

3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts.

SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible, mainly overnight, across portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 94.4 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through Saturday morning. A gradual turn toward the westsouthwest is expected Saturday night and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Hanna is expected to become a hurricane before the cyclone makes landfall on Saturday. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Satellite imagery, along with Doppler radar data from Houston and Corpus Christi, indicate that Hanna has been getting better organized over the past several hours. Curved banding features have improved and a banding eye has developed in the radar data. The NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reported SFMR winds of 43-45 kt on its last outbound leg and a ship D5DE5 just east of the center reported an elevated wind speed of 51 kt at 1400Z. Based on these data, along with an estimated pressure of 999 mb from surrounding oil rigs, the initial intensity has been conservatively increased to 45 kt.

Reconnaissance and radar fix data indicate that Hanna has turned westward, and the motion is now 275/09 kt. Hanna is forecast to move generally westward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours, with landfall expected along the south-central coast of Texas within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening. The new NHC forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to an average of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Given the improved internal structure noted in radar imagery, along with SSTs of at least 30 deg C and an impressive outflow pattern, increased frictional convergence as the cyclone moves closer to the coast and the approaching nocturnal convective maximum should support additional strengthening, and Hanna is now forecast to become a hurricane prior to making landfall. The NHC forecast of 65 kt in 24 hours is between the latest HWRF model run, which brings Hanna to 70 kt just prior to landfall, and the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN, which are just below hurricane strength.

Due to Hanna forecast to reach hurricane strength, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for portions of the Texas coast.