1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas within the next couple of hours.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York
- North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
- Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
- North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
- North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point
- New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
- Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
- South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet
- Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
- Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3 5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3 5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3 5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2 4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2 4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1 3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area today, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next hour or two. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning and continuing into tonight.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania today into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 71.2 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north northwest is expected this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island late this morning or early this afternoon. After landfall, a turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning, and Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged overnight and early this morning. Deep convection remains over the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection band that wraps around the circulation forming a lose banding-eye feature. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before. The initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more hours and should provide additional information on the storm's intensity. Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt. The storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians. Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long Island and into southern New England later this morning or early this afternoon. There is still a little spread in the track guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours, and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS which are slightly to the left. Regardless of the exact landfall location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far from the center. After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New England. Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become post-tropical shortly thereafter.

With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location. These updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in radar imagery.

Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged overnight and early this morning. Deep convection remains over the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection band that wraps around the circulation forming a loose banding-eye feature. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before. The initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more hours and should provide additional information on the storm's intensity. Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt. The storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians. Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long Island and into southern New England later this morning or early this afternoon. There is still a little spread in the track guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours, and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS which are slightly to the left. Regardless of the exact landfall location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far from the center. After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New England. Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become post-tropical shortly thereafter.

With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location. These updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in radar imagery.