1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. late this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 69.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days but could approach southeastern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Compared to microwave images from earlier on Wednesday, GMI microwave data from last evening revealed that Henri's structure had deteriorated somewhat, with convection on the west side of the mid-level eye having mostly dissipated. This degradation is likely the result of strong deep-layer shear and dry air in the mid levels. Satellite intensity estimates have either remained steady or decreased a bit, and Henri's initial intensity is therefore held at 60 kt. This value is supported by two evening scatterometer passes, which had peak winds of 52 kt and 57 kt.

The GMI and ASCAT data revealed that the center is slightly farther south than previously estimated, and Henri has been moving south of due west, or 260/8 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes toward the Ohio Valley, and global models are in agreement that this trough will cut off over the central Appalachians in about 48 hours. As a result, the ridge currently steering Henri westward is expected to relocate over the northern Gulf coast, with the cut-off low causing Henri to accelerate northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by late Friday through Sunday. Then, mid-level ridging over Quebec is likely to cause Henri to slow down considerably in the vicinity of southeastern New England or the adjacent offshore waters by Monday. The latest suite of deterministic track models have much less spread compared to on Wednesday, with fairly good agreement on the scenario described above. However, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to show a wider assortment of solutions, with stronger storms tending to move closer to the U.S. coast and weaker storms moving farther offshore. With the tight clustering of the current guidance, the trajectory of the new NHC track forecast was not changed much from the previous iteration, although it is a little faster during the time that Henri accelerates to the north. The biggest point here is that it's still too soon to know exactly how close Henri's center will get to the coast of New England.

The north-northeasterly shear affecting Henri is not expected to abate for another 24-36 hours. Once the shear does decrease, however, warm waters should foster strengthening, up until Sunday when Henri is expected to move north of the Gulf Stream. An increase in southerly shear and Henri's slow motion over the colder waters off New England should then cause weakening on days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a little below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are being influenced by the seemingly over-aggressive HWRF and COAMPS-TC models, and this new forecast is very similar to the previous prediction.