FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Henri
LOCATED
320 MI SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
WINDS
70 MPH
PRESSURE
994 MB
MOVING
NNW AT 6 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
Henri almost a hurricane.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday.

3. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday.

3. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
- North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
- Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
- North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
- New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
- West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
- West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
- North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
- Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
- North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
- New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
- West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
- West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay...35 ft East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...24 ft North shore of Long Island...24 ft Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...24 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri will result in flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and into the weekend. These swells could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay...35 ft East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...24 ft North shore of Long Island...24 ft Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...24 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri will result in flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and into the weekend. These swells could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is moving toward the northnorthwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in southern New England.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is moving toward the northnorthwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in southern New England.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri this morning and based on the flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data, the initial intensity is still around 55 kt. The minimum pressure has also been relatively steady. The low-level center of Henri is located close to the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection, and the vortex is still not vertically aligned due to 20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Although the intensity of Henri has not changed much during the past couple of days, satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well- established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate that Henri is poised to strengthen.

There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine.

The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm later today through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur in 3 to 4 days, and the new forecast shows Henri dissipated by day 5, in agreement with most of the global models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri this morning and based on the flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data, the initial intensity is still around 55 kt. The minimum pressure has also been relatively steady. The low-level center of Henri is located close to the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection, and the vortex is still not vertically aligned due to 20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Although the intensity of Henri has not changed much during the past couple of days, satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well- established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate that Henri is poised to strengthen.

There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine.

The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm later today through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur in 3 to 4 days, and the new forecast shows Henri dissipated by day 5, in agreement with most of the global models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram