1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late Saturday night or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible late Saturday night or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York
- North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
- Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
- North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
- North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point
- New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
- South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet
- Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
- Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...35 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...35 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...35 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...24 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...24 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to northnortheastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the northnorthwest expected late today or tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).

Satellite imagery shows that Henri is becoming better organized this evening, with the low-level center becoming more embedded in the convective overcast and an increase in convective banding. There has also been an increase in the anticyclonic outflow. However, reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, as the maximum winds remain about 60 kt to the southeast of the elongated center and the central pressure is in the 994-996 mb range.

Henri has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 010/8. A deep-layer mid-latitude trough over the Appalachians and the Ohio Valley will cut off into a closed low during the next 12-24 h, while a ridge builds northward to the east and northeast of Henri. This evolution should cause the storm to move north-northeastward for 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest from 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Henri over the mid-Atlantic states or southern New England between 36-48 h. After 48 h, the cyclone should get caught up in the southern edge of the westerlies and turn generally eastward across southern New England and the Gulf of Maine. There has been little change in the direction of the forecast guidance since the last advisory, but the guidance is faster on this cycle through 48 h. Thus, the new track forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, is faster than the previous forecast through the 48 h point.

A combination of decreasing shear, improved organization, and upper-level divergence associated with the trough to the west should allow Henri to strengthen for the next 24 h or so, and the new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt. After 24 h, the center should move over cooler water, and weakening should start before landfall in the northeastern United States. However, the cyclone is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. After landfall, Henri should weaken quickly and become post-tropical by the 72 h time. Dissipation is forecast between 96-120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.