1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible late tonight or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch east of Westport, Massachusetts has been discontinued, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York
- North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
- Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
- North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
- North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point
- New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts
- Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
- South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet
- Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
- Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3 5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3 5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3 5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2 4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2 4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.2 West. Henri is moving toward the north northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the north northwest expected late today or tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

An earlier GMI satellite microwave image continued to indicate that Henri's low-level center was still located near the northwestern edge of the convective canopy. However, more recent geostationary satellite imagery shows that the convection is beginning to wrap around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation suggesting that the anticipated decrease in shear is occuring, and that Henri may be on the verge of strengthening. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remained unchanged so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, in agreement with those estimates and the earlier aircraft data. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission should be in the storm around 1200 UTC this morning.

Henri is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. A mid- to upper-level low and associated trough over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley should steer Henri north-northeastward at a faster forward speed today. As Henri moves around the eastern portion of the upper-low, the storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward tonight. This motion will bring the center of Henri near or over portions of Long Island and Southern New England on Sunday and into the northeastern United States Sunday night. After that time, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward as it becomes caught in the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest dynamical model envelope continues to narrow for the first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast period and only small adjustments were needed to that portion of the track. After that time, the guidance has trended to taking Henri farther inland over the Northeastern United States, and the NHC forecast as been modified accordingly.

Decreasing shear, upper-level divergence associated with the trough to Henri's west, and warm SSTs should allow the cyclone to strengthen during the next 12-18 hours. Although not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, Henri could still peak around 75 kt later today or this evening. After that time, cooler waters are likely to cause a gradual reduction in intensity, however, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the Northeast United States, a faster rate of filling is anticipated. The system is forecast to become post-tropical in about 60 hours, and it will likely dissipate around day 4, if not a little sooner. The updated intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the intensity guidance during the first 12-24 hours, and is close to the Decay-SHIPS model thereafter.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.